Betting on politics is nearly as old as politics itself. In sixteenth century-Italy, it was a common practice to bet on papal elections. In fact, wagers were often handled by the banking houses in Rome. Political futures markets were also popular in eighteenth-century Britain and Ireland, and maintain popularity today. The man at the head of that betting markets is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle who is on offer at a top price of 8/1 with Coral. The same bookie actually has joint favourites with Archbishop Angelo Scola at 8/1 also but elsewhere, the same candidate is listed at best odds of 10/1 with Paddy Power. In the papal conclave of April, 1555, Gian Pietro Carafa stood a good chance of being elected pope, ranking among the top three papabile in the first ballot of the conclave. It is reported that brokers intentionally “spread the rumour that Naples [i.e. Carafa] had died”, in order to attract money on the other candidates. There is no particular format to choosing a papal name, so this market would be pretty much a guessing game for any punter interested in betting on the next name of the pope. However, if you are looking for clues, 21 previous popes used the name John, while there have been 16 who went by the name of Pope Gregory and 15 Benedicts. Gambling On Papal Elections If stopping each Trump and Cruz would trigger a revolt, picking both someone who had already lost this race, or the shedding 2012 candidate, would in all probability trigger anarchy. Ahead of what appears a likely defeat tonight in Wisconsin, market help for Donald Trump continues to deteriorate. At 2.06 this […]
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